One of the
challenges for the recovering alcoholic, I assume, is to resist the special
circumstance, the one-off occasion. It’s my daughter’s wedding, my best friend
died, my wife just gave birth. Surely one drink will be okay. I’m entitled to
that at least. In fact, it would unconscionable not to toast her future happiness, not to see the old boy off, not
to wet the baby’s head. It won’t be like last time, I promise. No more benders.
This time I’ll know when to stop.
I think of this
whenever I see America gearing up for another war. Just one little drink. One
little surgically targeted strike. It won’t be like Iraq – which wasn’t going
to be like Vietnam. This time it’s different.
And it is different. For one thing, the internal
political scene in America has changed radically since the invasion of Iraq. Then
there was Bush and his cabal of hawks, for whom the non-Islamist world was
divided into the willing and the weasels. Now there’s Obama with his professorial
tendency to mull things over and seek consensus. Bush had the Democrats backed
into a corner and, in Blair, had a sidekick with the messianic self-belief and the
political authority to drag Britain unwillingly into war. Obama won’t be helped
by our own faltering coalition government and faces such visceral opposition from
many in the Republican party that their desire to humiliate him might yet trump
every other consideration.
And the external
prompt is different. Saddam Hussein was a horrible tyrant, but his infamous attack
on the Kurds with poison gas was already old news, and one could legitimately
ask, why the sudden urgency? Assad’s chemical weapons attack is part of an
unfolding humanitarian disaster. Bush’s audacious ambition for Iraq was to
overthrow the regime and build a democracy in its place. Obama promises a highly
curtailed aerial action – no boots, as they say, on the ground, and no decisive
interference in the civil war.
Different and
yet strangely the same. First in the tendency for reasons to proliferate: we must
punish Assad, we must send a message to Iran, we must prevent chemical weapons
falling into the hands of terrorists….
Secondly, in the
way these multiplying reasons circle round to create a new meta-reason: America
can’t be seen to back down. Which is another way of saying that once the
President has officially raised the question of whether to attack, the only
possible answer is yes. In America they don’t call this saving face – the sort
of private concern that afflicts elderly Chinese leaders – but maintaining US credibility,
a phrase which elevates pride to a level of strategic importance.
Thirdly, in that
very claim of difference: this time it’s special – but isn’t it always? And one
effect of that emphasis on the uniqueness of this case is to keep everyone myopically
focused, once again, on the ad hoc question – to go in or not to go in – and to
distract from any analysis of principles: on what grounds may one country
legitimately launch a one-sided attack on another, and is the USA alone
entitled to take such unilateral action? And I know it’s a long time ago now but should America have been punished for napalm and agent orange, and in what
form, and by whom, and would that have helped?
As the American
commentator Chris Hayes has put it, the enthusiasts for war present us with a
syllogism: Something must be done. This is something. Therefore this must be
done. The logic is not very convincing.